AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am DFS picks 2026: Xander Schauffele's underlying metrics show reasons to be optimistic
Editor's Note: This article is published in partnership with Betsperts Golf, a Golf Digest content partner.
Alex Goodlett
The PGA Tour returns to California’s Pacific Coast, heading to the Monterey Bay Peninsula for the season’s first official Signature Event, contested across the iconic Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill.
Two years ago, the tournament introduced a series of structural changes that remain in place this year. The field was reduced to 80 players, with competition now split between just two courses. The first 36 holes are contested Thursday and Friday at Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill, with each PGA Tour pro paired alongside an amateur. There is no cut, and the final two rounds are played exclusively by the pros at Pebble Beach.
Though Spyglass is slightly more protected by trees, both courses sit exposed along the Pacific Coast, where rapidly changing weather can play a significant role in shaping the tournament. Beyond the coastal elements, Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill share several key similarities. Each ranks among the shortest courses on the PGA Tour at under 7,100 yards, and both feature some of the smallest greens on tour. Pebble Beach, in particular, has the smallest greens, averaging just 3,500 square feet.
Agronomically, the courses are identical, with Poa annua and ryegrass blends in the fairways and rough, and pure Poa annua greens. A second-shot course if there ever was one, players will be provided with a challenging test of patience, pitching wedges and Poa putting. For the golfers who have played the last couple of weeks in Torrey Pines and Scottsdale, the emphasis shifts from distance and long-iron play to short-iron precision on very difficult green complexes.
Since 2010, winning scores have averaged 19-under par. It’s the strongest field of the year thus far with 27 of the top 30-ranked golfers in the world in attendance. Rory McIlroy arrives for his first PGA Tour event of the year, hoping to repeat as champion at Pebble Beach and claim the first signature event of the season. World No. 4 Tommy Fleetwood is also making his stateside debut fresh off his 2025 FedEx Cup title.
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Both will have their work cut out for them as Scottie Scheffler comes in as the overwhelming favorite (+300) once again, having already proven he is in championship form by recently capturing the American Express and finishing T-3 in Scottsdale last week.
$9,000+ range
Play: Scottie Scheffler, $14,000
After coming in at roughly 26 percent ownership at last week’s WM Phoenix Open, it’s safe to expect Scottie Scheffler to be significantly more popular this week. Despite losing 2.1 strokes in the opening round, he rebounded in emphatic fashion, gaining a staggering 13.8 strokes over the final three rounds.
Scheffler arrives at Pebble Beach with a reduced salary and plenty of viable roster construction options around him, including several high-upside players in the upper $6,000 and low $7,000 range who are guaranteed four rounds of play. We also now have a 100-round sample of Scottie being a half-stroke better than the field on the greens, along with his ball speed creeping over 180 mph.
Play: Xander Schauffele, $9,100
With a missed cut two weeks ago in San Diego followed by a T-41 at last week’s WM Phoenix Open, Xander Schauffele’s 2026 season has gotten off to a sluggish start. As a result, his salary has fallen to its lowest point in recent memory. The underlying numbers, however, offer reason for optimism. In Sunday’s final round in Phoenix, Schauffele gained 4.7 strokes, including 2.4 on approach. Even more encouraging, across his five measured rounds this season, his wedge play ranks second in this week’s field—a critical edge at Pebble Beach, where 44 percent of approach shots come from 50-150 yards.
Fade: Hideki Matsuyama, $9,200
Matsuyama was a short-game magician in Phoenix, gaining 10.9 strokes while losing nearly five off the tee. Pebble Beach will allow him to club down on many holes, but Pebble Beach’s forgiving setup around the greens limits his ability to separate from the field with his elite chipping. His course history is also uninspiring, with finishes of 48th and 71st over the past two years.
Alex Goodlett
$8,000+ range
Play: Jason Day, $8,500
There’s a reason Day has posted eight top-15 finishes here since 2016—he fits the exact profile Pebble Beach demands. He ranks 15th in the field from wedge range, 12th in putting on Poa greens and sits sixth over the past three years on short courses, gaining an average of 1.27 strokes per round.
Orlando Ramirez
Fade: Michael Thorbjornsen, $8,600
While the youngster impressed in Phoenix, many of his strengths are muted at a venue like Pebble Beach. He has underperformed relative to his baseline on shorter, less-than-driver courses and ranks near the bottom of the field in approach play from the key 50-150-yard wedge ranges.
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$7,000+ range
Play: Sepp Straka, $7,700
Coming off a T-18 in Phoenix where he gained 3.8 strokes on approach over the weekend, Straka is as good a course fit as anyone in this range. He has shown the ability to take his game to another level in stronger fields as evidenced by ranking fifth in the field in strokes gained in signature events over the past 18 months, gaining 1.22 per round. And in a week where being able to spike on approach is so vital, per the Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole, Straka is second in the field on short courses similar to Pebble Beach in gaining two-plus strokes on approach per round at 26.1 percent.
Orlando Ramirez
$6,000+ range
Play: Denny McCarthy, $6,800
In my initial Rabbit Hole model this week, McCarthy grades out sixth overall. He ranks 15th in the field in SG/total on shorter, less-than-driver courses, third in putting on Poa greens and 20th in proximity from 100-150 yards. He’s also shown comfort at Pebble Beach, finishing fourth in 2023 and 12th in 2022.
Orlando Ramirez
Ron Klos (@PGASplits101 on X) is a PGA Tour data analyst for Betsperts Golf.