Genesis Invitational 2026: Why we believe Rory McIlroy will finally get his Riviera win
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Mike Mulholland
There are few ways to top the picturesque scenes and electric finish we witnessed at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and one of them is a return to Riviera. The Genesis Invitational reunites with one of professional golf’s most cherished destinations, The Riviera Country Club, after a one-year pause due to the California wildfires in 2025.
Golf fans are once again rewarded with a Signature Event–caliber field, as 72 of the most accomplished players on the PGA Tour attempt to navigate this iconic George Thomas design tucked into the Pacific Palisades.
Riviera Country Club can be a brute. Overwhelmingly steep bunkers, long, winding par 4s, and challenging greens typically produce scenarios where the cream rises to the top. With that said, here are my top contenders to be handed the trophy by tournament host Tiger Woods at the 2026 Genesis Invitational.
10. Ludvig Åberg
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We’ve seen a prodigious dip in form for Ludvig Åberg to begin 2026, but I believe this could be an opportune buy-low spot for a player with an ideal skill set for Riviera, who was consistently ranked in the top five in the world in 2025.
He showed signs of life at Pebble Beach, posting 11-under on the weekend and recording the second-best approach metrics in the field on Saturday. We just witnessed how quickly a player can flip the switch and win when the swing clicks, and Åberg looks primed to kickstart his 2026 campaign at the Genesis.
9. Jake Knapp
Fresh off his third consecutive top-10 finish at Pebble Beach, Knapp continues to throw his name into Sunday contention and has all the tools to do it again this week. He ranks No. 1 in the field in greens in regulation from the rough, a key stat at Riviera given the course’s historic difficulty.
He maintains his dominance off the tee, but it’s his putting on familiar Poa annua grass that makes him a top contender. Knapp is dialed in at the moment, and this is the final chance on the schedule for the Costa Mesa, Calif., native to notch a win in his home state.
8. Chris Gotterup
Orlando Ramirez
Riviera features six par 4s that stretch beyond 450 yards, many of them uphill, placing a premium on power and distance. Nobody in golf is driving the ball better right now than Chris Gotterup, who ranks best in the field in driving distance over the past six months.
After a scorching 6-under-through-6 start at Pebble Beach, his tournament derailed at Spyglass Hill when his ball became lodged in a tree. This will mark his first start at Riviera, but with three wins in his past 12 events, there’s no leaving him off the list.
7. Hideki Matsuyama
After a late Sunday collapse in Scottsdale, Matsuyama exceeded expectations by posting another impressive performance at Pebble Beach, again overcoming struggles off the tee.
Matsuyama delivered one of the best Sunday rounds in PGA Tour history in his 2024 victory at Riviera, firing a blistering 62 to win by three strokes. He’d rank even higher no this list, but reports suggest Riviera is wet and playing soft, meaning he’ll need to tighten up the driver to contend.
6. Collin Morikawa
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Pebble Beach marked Morikawa’s best iron performance in nearly six years, a welcome sight for backers awaiting his return to the winner’s circle. He now heads up the coast to Riviera brimming with confidence and armed with excellent course history. Unlike most who succeed here with power, Morikawa does it with precision—he’s never lost strokes on approach in seven starts at Riviera. After hitting 62 of 72 greens in regulation on a course with the smallest greens on tour, I expect him to be firing on all cylinders again this week.
5. Cameron Young
In 2022, a 24-year-old Cameron Young was a rookie playing in his first marquee PGA Tour event at the Genesis Invitational. He finished T-2, dominating the field off the tee and on the greens.
He possesses the rare ability to make difficult courses look easy, as evidenced by his 29-under aggregate score across three appearances at this tournament. With 2026 off to a slow start amid high expectations, Riviera is the perfect get-right destination for Young.
4. Patrick Cantlay
Mike Mulholland
“It’s a place I’m comfortable. It feels like a home game.” Those were Cantlay’s words after posting a tidy 7-under 64 in the opening round here in 2024.
He ranks No. 1 in the field in course history and has called Riviera his favorite course, having grown up nearby and played collegiately at UCLA. If there’s ever a spot to confidently return to the Cantlay well, it’s here.
3. Tommy Fleetwood
Before last week at Pebble, Fleetwood hadn’t appeared on the PGA Tour since his breakthrough victory at the Tour Championship in August. He may have refreshed the wardrobe in the pro shop, but his game is still sharp.
Fleetwood was second tee-to-green for the week at Pebble Beach and now arrives at a venue that will test those skills even more. With a deft short game and strong putting history at Riviera, he’ll be dangerous if everything clicks.
2. Rory McIlroy
There aren’t many unchecked boxes in McIlroy’s career, but winning the Genesis Invitational is one of them. On paper, Riviera is a perfect fit for his game, allowing him to fully unleash the driver. He led the field in strokes gained off the tee by more than a full shot here in 2024.
Arriving on the heels of a closing 64 at Pebble Beach, McIlroy looks primed to shine at a tournament where seven of the last 11 winners have also donned a green jacket. Scheffler may hold the crown, but the gap between Scottie and Rory feels narrower than the odds suggest.
1. Scottie Scheffler
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He feels inevitable. Consider this: if Scheffler had opened the last two tournaments with a simple 70, usually routine for a player who lives in the mid-60s, he would already have three wins in three starts in 2026.
There’s talk that West Coast Poa annua greens could be a mild kryptonite, but even that seems like an obstacle he’s poised to overcome. A stern test like Riviera should suit him perfectly. When the going gets tough, Scottie gets going.
Joe Idone is a Read The Line contributor and host of the Preferred Lines podcast.