Genesis Invitational picks 2026: The sleeper our experts love at Riviera
It’s been a heckuva start to the 2026 PGA Tour season. Last week delivered a compelling back nine with Collin Morikawa holding off charges from Scottie Scheffler and a slew of other contenders to get his first win on U.S. soil since 2021. It’s also been a fantastic start in the Golf Digest picks column. Collectively, our group is up over 25 units in just five events across matchup and top-10 bets. Plus, one of our writers, Stephen Hennnessey cashed Justin Rose at 60-1 in winning Torrey Pines a few weeks ago.
It’s tough to start much better. We’re wrapping up the West Coast swing with some confidence and cash in our pockets. See who our Golf Digest betting panel—which is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line—are betting this week at The Riviera Country Club.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 Genesis Invitational:
Genesis Invitational picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Rory McIlroy (+1325, DraftKings) — Five or so holes completely sank McIlroy's chances at Pebble Beach. When Rory is losing strokes driving and putting in the same event chalk that up to a couple brain farts. His approach play, however, was one of the best of the week. At Riv, Rory’s driver will transform back into the weapon to dominate off the tee at a longer course, while his putting will likely bounce back since he’s been one of the best putters on tour over the past two years (+0.35/per round). After finally picking up his Augusta win, to go along with Quail Hollow and Bay Hill, Riviera is the last of the similar tracks he’s yet to take down.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Rory McIlroy (+1325, DraftKings) — Course conditions at Riviera will favor players who are peaking with their iron game, can score on Poa Annua, and can separate themselves with the driver. Hello, Rory McIlroy! McIlroy gained 6.8 strokes on approach at Pebble Beach and recorded a 17-under-par total with two sevens on his card. Rory’s short game was sharp, and he carded 25 sub-par scores for the week. Coming off the confidence Augusta gave him last year, I’m taking McIlroy to capture another career trophy that has eluded him.
Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Scottie Scheffler (+320, Bet365) — Scheffler hasn’t played at Riviera since his famed switch to the mallet putter. In fact, the 2024 Genesis Invitational was the last time he used a blade putter on tour. His Riviera history (T-10, T-12, T-7, T-20 in his past four starts) is quite pedestrian by Scheffler’s supremely high standards, but he has gained more strokes tee-to-green (27.09) than anyone else has at Riviera over that four-event stretch. Caddie Ted Scott has a ton of success around here as well, caddieing for three Bubba Watson wins at Riviera. I know he’s not swinging a club this week, but that experience certainly helps at a course that’s known for its strategic demands.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Cameron Young (35-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — It's been two poor weeks in a row, but Cameron Young is a great fit for Riviera, so I’m willing to look at the longer-term data. Everyone was so high on him heading into 2026. CY is the best player in this field looking at SG/total at Riviera, which is the third-most predictive course of the year. Give us the ball-striking gains we saw at the end of 2025 with the short game he’s shown over the past year, and we have the formula to winning at Riviera.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Matt Fitzpatrick (36-1, DraftKings) — Can’t help but love what we’re seeing from Fitzy so far in 2026. If he didn’t leave one in the bunker on the 72nd last week, he likely finishes in the top 10 for a second week in a row. And he’s off to this strong start despite an ice-cold putter, which we know can flip on a dime. The Englishman ranks seventh on tour this year in SG/tee-to-green, a key indicator of success at this iconic golf course over the years.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Matt Fitzpatrick (36-1, DraftKings) — Matt Fitzpatrick is coming off a 14th-place finish at Pebble Beach where he gained 2.8 strokes off the tee and 7.8 strokes on approach, and he has been playing some great golf dating back to the end of last season, which includes a victory at the DP World Tour Championship. Fitzpatrick’s elite short game should pay dividends at Riviera this week.
Past results: We have our FIRST winner of 2026, with Stephen Hennessey correctly predicting Justin Rose’s victory at Torrey Pines at 60-1!
Genesis Invitational picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Mayo: Harris English (40-1, FanDuel) — Tough to go too far down the board at a signature event when the books have compressed all the odds, so English is the man for me. While nothing seems particularly different about his game in 2026, the stats reveal an incredible leap in his driving year over year. Sixteen rounds is a pretty small sample, but English is gaining almost a stroke per round off the tee, second of all players to Scottie Scheffler. That’s +0.75 SG:OTT per round more on average than his performance over the past last year and a half. While his irons have dipped a bit this year, in his two starts where he was forced to hit longer irons (like Riviera), he’s been in the positive.
Stewart: Sepp Straka (50-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — More and more, Sepp Straka is becoming a factor in signature series events. Straka won the Truist last year and just finished runner-up at Pebble Beach. What was even more impressive than second place was the manner in which Sepp achieved it. Straka gained significantly across all four major strokes-gained categories. Something that previous winners of the Genesis have done. An 18th at WM Phoenix, and a signature second at Pebble, I’m taking a player who can hit fairways, lead the field in GIR, save par, and score on Poa greens.
Noonan: Harris English (40-1, FanDuel) — If you were to boil the handicap down to a few key things this week, one of them must be bogey avoidance. The scoring chances are limited at Riviera, but you make things more difficult when you give strokes back. English ranks third in this week’s field in bogey avoidance over the past three seasons, and he also has great course history at Torrey Pines, Augusta National and here at Riviera. English plays his best golf on longer, tougher tracks, and I won’t be surprised when he has a late tee time on Sunday afternoon.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Harris English (40-1, FanDuel) — English has been super consistent in 2026, and he’s been hitting it great off the tee a bit under the radar. With a tougher test due to the wet conditions and more long irons, that plays into English’s hands.
Powers, Golf Digest: Tony Finau (120-1, DraftKings) — Not to brag, but I caught Big Tone at 225-1 on Monday (tried to tell y’all). That’s been slashed but I’m still all in. Two runner-up finishes here in his career, plus three other top 20s. After a brutal season last year, he’s finished T-11 (Farmers) and 18th (Pebble) in two of his last three. The only signs of life I need to see to take a shot.
Lack: Maverick McNealy (55-1, BetOnline) — Maverick McNealy has been showing some serious flashes with his ball-striking, and he remains one of the best Poa putters in this field. McNealy already has a seventh-place finish at Riviera, and I expect him to continue his strong play in California.
Genesis Invitational picks 2026: Players We’re Fading
Mayo: Cameron Young (28-1, Bet365) — Until he can find his irons on a consistent basis, a second shot course like Riv is going to give him fits… and a lot of bogeys to sink his easy birdies.
Stewart: Cameron Young (28-1, Bet365) — This will be a polarizing pick. Cameron Young made a name for himself in 2022 when he finished runner-up at the Genesis Invitational. Since then, Young has racked up two more top 20s at Riviera. Why the fade? Cameron’s iron game has been off in his two most recent starts and three of his last four, going back to the Hero. Coupled with losing strokes at Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines on Poa greens in the last three weeks, I’ll let the rest of the pundits pick Young to win.
Noonan: Sam Burns (33-1, FanDuel) — Maybe it’s just the fact that I can’t get over him hitting an iron off the 18th tee at Pebble … down two shots … on a hole where an eagle was in play, even in those conditions. I can’t unsee it.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Russell Henley (22-1, BetRivers) — I love betting Henley as much as anybody, but I’ll do so on a shorter Bermuda course with more wedge shots.
Powers, Golf Digest: Si Woo Kim (28-1, BetRivers) — Si Woo has been scorching hot to start the year, but I’m going to play the fatigue angle here. This will be his sixth straight week teeing it up. It may have already caught up to him at Pebble, where he tied for 45th, and he needed a final-round 65 just to do that.
Lack: Russell Henley (22-1, BetRivers) — With Riviera playing long and cold this year, Russell Henley’s lack of distance may be a serious problem. Henley is an elite wedge player and an extremely accurate driver, two skills that will be significantly diminished based on the course conditions I am expecting this week.
Genesis Invitational picks 2026: Matchups
Mayo: Michael Kim (-110) over Kevin Yu (Coolbet) — My guy MK has been spotty since the calendar flipped, and spotty is miles ahead of Kevin Yu. Since three straight top 20s to begin the swing season, Yu lost his swing. Always one of the more reliable drivers of the ball the past few seasons, he’s lost that ability—and the rest of his game hasn’t been able to bail him out. Yu’s currently losing almost a stroke per round ball-striking in 2026.
Stewart: Jason Day (-120) over J.J. Spaun (FanDuel) — Jason Day has back-to-back top nine results playing in the Genesis at Riviera. Any course that requires Poa savvy and great iron play is a good fit for the Aussie. The Kikuyu rough will be familiar, and outside of a couple of poor iron shots at Pebble Beach, Day’s game is on point. J.J. Spaun is having serious issues with his putter. Spaun is losing an average of 3.2 strokes per event in his last four starts. To compound the challenge, Spaun lost nearly five strokes with the flatstick in his last start at Riviera (2024).
Noonan: Tommy Fleetwood (-111) over Xander Schauffele (BetMGM) — Fleetwood is fourth in my model this week, and would likely be my top outright ticket if I were skipping Scottie. He models very well for me in a few key ball-striking stats, including his Good Drive% on long courses with difficult GIR accuracy. Xander lost over a stroke on approach in both weekend rounds at Pebble Beach, which shouldn’t instill a lot of confidence for those looking to back him this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Collin Morikawa (-110) over Russell Henley (FanDuel) — I was tempted to bet Morikawa outright, but it’s so tough to go back to back. I’ll take him at a spot where he’s excelled before over my fade, Henley, who hasn’t had the best start to his 2026.
Powers, Golf Digest: Matt Fitzpatrick (-120) over Ludvig Aberg (Bet365) — My pick to win over the defending champ (Torrey Pines). Very odd start to the year for Ludvig, who withdrew from AMEX with an illness, MC’d at Farmers, then opened with a 75 at the AT&T before clawing back to finish T-37. He has the talent to correct quickly, but Fitz is humming right now and might win if he catches fire with the flat stick.
Lack: Patrick Cantlay (-110) over Collin Morikawa (Southpoint) — I have no problem fading Collin Morikawa off a huge win, as Riviera will be a much more difficult test. Patrick Cantlay also performed well at Pebble Beach, and his distance off the tee and superior putting make him a safer bet this week.
Matchup Results from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Lack: 1 for 1 (Cantlay (-105) over Young); Powers: 1 for 1 (Fleetwood (-120) over Rose); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Straka (+112) over Bradley); Stewart: PUSH (Day (+100) over English); Hennessey: 0 for 1; Noonan: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack: 5-0-0 (up 4.26 units); Stewart: 3-0-1 (up 2.65 units); Powers: 4-1-0 (up 2.61 units); Mayo: 3-2-0 (up 1.26 units); Hennessey: 2-3-0 (down 1.17 units); Noonan: 1-4-0 (down 3.05 units)
Genesis Invitational picks 2026: Top 10s
Mayo: Matt Fitzpatrick (+320, FanDuel) — Fresh off the best approach week of career, Fitz is now crushing both driving and iron play to kick off the season. Problem is, he hasn’t been able to chip or putt; two of his historic strengths. While it’s possible his ball-striking reverts to non-elite level, in the off chance he can keep it up and see his short game return to normal, then we have someone who will be near the top of the leader board.
Stewart: Hideki Matsuyama (+240, BetRivers) — In four starts this season, Hideki Matsuyama has finished T-13 at Sony, T-11 at Farmers, second at WMPO, and T-8 at the AT&T. The iron play is exquisite, and the short game is currently the best in the field. Matsuyama even gained with the putter in his last two outings. The 2024 Genesis winner only has one issue, and that is the driver. Without the big stick, I can’t justify the outright pick, but finishing top 10 as the defending venue champ is well within his current run.
Noonan: Collin Morikawa (+250, FanDuel) — Morikawa is second in my model at Betsperts Golf this week. Yeah, Scheffler is first. For the record, he was second even before we had the Pebble Beach data. He leads the field in the Good Drive% on long courses with difficult GIR% and can meet the unique ball-striking demands of this venue. Dating back to the start of 2024, Morikawa is second in this field in SG/ball-striking when it’s difficult to gain off the tee and difficult to hit the green in regulation. There’s been a lot of overlap with leader boards at Riviera, Augusta National and Torrey Pines, and Morikawa rates out highly there as well, despite never winning at any of these venues.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Matt Fitzpatrick (+320, FanDuel) — Fitz agonizingly left one in the bunker on the 72nd hole on Sunday, costing me a top-10 ticket last week. I’ll go back to the well after his best approach week of his career.
Powers, Golf Digest: Rickie Fowler (+410, FanDuel) — Rick has quietly finished inside the top 20 in all three starts he’s made this year, and he’s returned to his 2022-’23 form with his irons. Driver has never been his strong suit, but he has had a few solid rounds with it in the last two weeks: Sunday at WMPO, when he ranked fourth in the field in SG/off-the-tee, and last Thursday at Pebble, when he gained 1.127 OTT.
Lack: Harris English (+300, BetRivers) — Harris English is one of my favorite plays on the slate this week, and he has been hitting his driver unbelievably well. English also possesses a great short game and finished seventh at Riviera in his last appearance at this event.
Top-10 results from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Sepp Straka +500); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Noonan: 2 for 5 (up 6.1 units); Mayo: 3 for 5 (up 11.7 units); Stewart: 2 for 5 (up 3.65 units); Lack: 1 for 5 (up 2 units); Powers: 1 for 5 (up 0.1 units); Hennessey: 0 for 5 (down 5 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.